The Key Obstacle for Social Security This Year: Can It Be Overcome by Trump’s New Term?
When Donald Trump takes office in the White House on Monday, January 20, he will face the urgent task of addressing Social Security before the program.
The Social Security Administration currently spends around $1.4 trillion per year on benefits to assist low-income households or individuals unable to work as much as the average healthy adult. Projections show that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) trust funds are expected to run out by 2035. If that happens, only 83% of beneficiaries will receive their full payments, with this figure dropping to 73% by 2098, as the program would rely solely on Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) taxes to sustain itself.
With four years in the Oval Office until 2029, followed by potential economic ripple effects into the next administration, the decisions Trump makes during his second and final term could determine whether Social Security survives or collapses.
What Are Donald Trump’s Plans?
In December 2023, during his campaign against Joe Biden and the Democrats, 78-year-old Trump pledged not to cut Social Security. He argued that the United States has untapped resources—such as oil and gas reserves—that could provide funding, making it unnecessary to target seniors' benefits. This proposal was presented as his solution to the program's looming financial challenges.
However, Trump did not provide detailed plans on how he would achieve this goal. He spoke vaguely about how Republicans would "restore economic stability" and "ensure the long-term sustainability" of Social Security.
Trump after making the public statement of his social security plans. Photo: Vox
Concerns About Feasibility
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) analyzed Trump’s proposal to use natural gas reserves as a funding source and found that the reserves would cover less than 4% of the shortfall.
Additionally, the CRFB warned that if Trump proceeds with his plan to eliminate federal taxes on retirement benefits, overtime, and tips, the exhaustion date for Social Security funds would move up from 2035 to 2031.
Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports also raise concerns. Critics argue that higher tariffs could trigger inflation, forcing the Social Security Administration to increase benefits in line with Cost of Living Adjustments (COLA). This would further drain the program’s already limited resources.